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双碳背景下中国天然气需求影响机制与趋势预测

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文章分析天然气市场运行现状,深入探讨中国天然气需求特点,采用工具变量法和时间序列模型对其需求收入弹性与价格弹性进行估计,采用SARIMA模型预测未来中国天然气需求.需求弹性分析结果显示,天然气的收入弹性高于1,表明随着经济增长天然气的需求将呈现相应上升趋势.然而,天然气需求相对缺乏价格弹性,且受到煤炭替代效应的影响.在天然气价格上涨的情况下,市场消费者可能通过减少需求或选择煤炭替代能源以缓解能源成本压力.模型预测结果显示,未来天然气需求将持续增加.综合分析结果表明,天然气市场在未来将受到经济增长的推动,但需要谨慎应对价格上涨可能带来的替代效应.
The Impact Mechanism and Trend Prediction of China's Natural Gas Demand under the Background of Dual Carbon Goals
This paper analyzes the current state of the natural gas market,delves into the characteristics of Chi-na's natural gas demand,and uses the instrumental variable approach and the time series model to estimate the in-come elasticity and price elasticity of natural gas demand as well as the SARIMA model to forecast the future natural gas demand in China.The results indicate that the income elasticity of natural gas is greater than 1,suggesting a cor-responding increase trend in demand with economic growth.However,the demand for natural gas exhibits a relative lack of price elasticity and is influenced by the substitution effect of coal.This implies that consumers may mitigate energy cost pressures by reducing demand or opting for coal as an alternative in the context of rising natural gas pric-es.Model predictions reveal a sustained increase in future natural gas demand.Based on the comprehensive analy-sis,this study concludes that the natural gas market will be driven by economic growth in the future but needs cau-tious response to potential substitution effects due to price increases.

Natural gas demandPrice elasticityIncome elasticityDemand forecast

张慕千

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中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京 102488

天然气需求 价格弹性 收入弹性 需求预测

2024

经济论坛
河北省社会科学院

经济论坛

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.394
ISSN:1003-3580
年,卷(期):2024.(6)
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