The Impact Mechanism and Trend Prediction of China's Natural Gas Demand under the Background of Dual Carbon Goals
This paper analyzes the current state of the natural gas market,delves into the characteristics of Chi-na's natural gas demand,and uses the instrumental variable approach and the time series model to estimate the in-come elasticity and price elasticity of natural gas demand as well as the SARIMA model to forecast the future natural gas demand in China.The results indicate that the income elasticity of natural gas is greater than 1,suggesting a cor-responding increase trend in demand with economic growth.However,the demand for natural gas exhibits a relative lack of price elasticity and is influenced by the substitution effect of coal.This implies that consumers may mitigate energy cost pressures by reducing demand or opting for coal as an alternative in the context of rising natural gas pric-es.Model predictions reveal a sustained increase in future natural gas demand.Based on the comprehensive analy-sis,this study concludes that the natural gas market will be driven by economic growth in the future but needs cau-tious response to potential substitution effects due to price increases.
Natural gas demandPrice elasticityIncome elasticityDemand forecast