A Study of the Impact of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Regulating Real Estate Price
This study utilizes the Chinese macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2022,and employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR)to analyze the impact of monetary policy on real estate price reg-ulation.The empirical findings indicate that both quantitative and price-based monetary policies experience a no-ticeable decline in their effectiveness over the medium and long term in regulating real estate prices,while the regu-latory effect of price-based monetary policy is marked by significant uncertainty.In addition,this paper builds a Sys-tem-GMM model to analyze the influence of population aging on the efficacy of monetary policy in regulating real es-tate prices on the basis of the Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021.The analysis reveals that population aging adversely affects the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy in real estate price regulation,while the im-pact on price-based monetary policy in regulating real estate prices is not significant.In the context of the ageing population,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to provide reference for the central bank improving monetary policy and enhance the effect of monetary policy implementation to cope with the ageing population and promote the steady development of the real estate market.
Population agingMonetary policyReal estate priceTVP-VAR modelSystem GMM model
万方数据
维普
