Research on the Growth Effect of Local Government Debt is Declining——An Empirical Study Based on China's Prefecture-Level Data
In recent years,the declining efficiency of local government debt funds utilization has received in-creasing attention.Whether local government debt continues to strongly drive economic growth remains a critical is-sue in governmental debt governance.This paper aims to explore decay process and acting mechanisms of the effect of local government debt on economic growth from the perspective of the long-term effects.The study finds local gov-ernment debt exhibits an overall positive effect on GDP growth,but this effect has been gradually diminishing over time.A mechanism analysis reveals that the decline of the level of overall fixed asset investment in society,the re-duction of enterprise R&D,and the"borrowing new to repay old"recycling of capital from local government in-vestment bonds are potential mechanisms behind the diminishing growth effects of local government debt.Finally,the empirical findings are subjected to heterogeneity tests.This research contributes significantly to both theoretical understanding and practical implications regarding the impact of government debt on economic growth.
Local government debtEconomic growthInverted U-shapePartial Projection Method
万方数据
