Has Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Price Become the Benchmark Price in the Asia-Pacific Region?——Based on the Validity,Dominance and Independence of the Three-dimensional Perspective Judgement
China's international influence in the formation of oil and other commodity prices is seriously miss-ing,such as the"Asian premium"problem,which seriously affects China's energy security and economic stability.As a result,the emergence of Shanghai crude oil futures is to reverse the passive situation in China's global oil trade and to play the role of the benchmark price in the Asia-Pacific region.To this end,this paper systematically examines the process of Shanghai crude oil futures price becoming the benchmark price in the Asia-Pacific region from the three-dimensional perspectives of effectiveness,dominance,and independence,using time-varying pa-rameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR-DY),quantile vector autoregressive model(QVAR-DY),and network analysis.The study finds that:Shanghai crude oil futures price has played the functions of guiding regional crude oil spot prices and avoiding market risks with effectiveness;Shanghai crude oil futures price has the advan-tage of influencing Asia-Pacific crude oil spot prices at very high quantile levels,but they have not yet demonstrat-ed the dominance of spot prices;Shanghai crude oil futures price has strong inertia and risk resistance when they act as an information issuer,and they have relative independence.Judging from this,Shanghai crude oil futures have initially grown into futures with regional influence.Although there is still a gap with the two major internation-al crude oil futures,Brent and WTI,it has strong regional independence in terms of price trend,and can provide timely and effective feedback on the supply and demand in China and the whole Asia-Pacific region.The Asia-Pa-cific region,as a global crude oil consumption center,lacks its own pricing benchmark situation is changing.
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