The Economic Dynamics of Three Major Regions in China Under the Shock of Global Financial Risk:A Comparison of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
In this paper,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are selected to represent the three major regional econo-mies in China,and Panel SVAR models are applied with the aim of comparing the dynamics of these three regions in the face of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy and global financial risk shocks.The results show that in the short run,the response of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions to nominal GDP,inflation,trade openness and general public budget revenues is similar to that of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area,but there is a difference in the persistence in the medium run.All three regions are more affected in terms of inflation and trade openness,while relatively less af-fected in terms of nominal GDP and general public budget revenue.Compared with Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is more sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy shocks.Meanwhile,inflation in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more significantly affected by interbank lending rate shocks.This paper assesses the dynamics of these three major regional economies from the perspective of financial risk shocks,and the results of the study help the relevant authorities to more accurately adjust and formu-late monetary policies as well as regional economic policies,so as to avoid economic losses due to the differences in the response of different regions to the transmission of financial risks.
Fed tightening monetary policyGlobal financial riskTrade opennessGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
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