Research on the Treasury Bond Liquidity Effect of China's Fiscal Policy Under the Perspective of Treasury Bond Term Premiums
The treasury bond liquidity effect of fiscal policy not only provides strong support for China's fiscal policy to regulate capital market liquidity,but also is an important prerequisite for China's fiscal pol-icy and monetary policy coordination to jointly regulate liquidity.Based on the skewed t-distribution fitting method,this paper investigates the treasury bond liquidity effect of China's spending-based and tax-based fiscal policies,from the perspective of treasury bond term premium.The results of the study show that:Active spending-based fiscal policy affects the liquidity of treasury bonds by regulating short-term treasury bond term premiums.However,this policy's intervention increases the likelihood of a rise in long-term treasury bond term premiums,leading to a tightening of forward liquidity.On the other hand,active tax-based fiscal policy primarily regulates medium-and long-term treasury bond term premiums,with a rela-tively weak impact on short-term treasury bond term premiums.Therefore,when regulating liquidity through fiscal policy,the department of finance must comprehensively consider both regulatory objectives and policy coordination mechanisms and select appropriate fiscal policy tools.
Fiscal policyTreasury bond liquidityTreasury bond term premium
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