Research on Import Stabilization Effects of Supply Chain Security Enhancement
This paper aims to establish a comprehensive supply chain security indicator that incorpo-rates three key sources of risk,namely concentricity,uncontrollability,and non-substitutability.By uti-lizing bilateral product-level trade data from 1996 to 2021,this study analyzes the stabilization effect of enhanced supply chain security on import volatility and explores potential strategies to ensure supply stabili-ty by adjusting participation modes in global supply chains,thereby measuring the level of supply chain se-curity for 5,143 products across 236 economies worldwide.The findings reveal a consistent increase in global supply chain risk from 1996 to 2021.Notably,the enhancement of supply chain security is a signif-icant contributor to the reduction of import volatility.This stabilization effect is particularly pronounced for resource-intensive,high-tech products,as well as those susceptible to non-tariff measures(NTMs).The channels through which enhanced supply chain security mitigates import volatility include the reduction of market correlation and the extension of import duration.To ensure the security and stability of industrial supply chain,it is recommended that the government develop a comprehensive list of high-risk products in collaboration with supply chain security indicators that accurately identify specific sources of risk at the product level.Additionally,differentiated trade and industrial policies should be formulated for products with varying types of risk to effectively stabilize the supply chain.
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