Regional Energy Transition and Carbon Peak:A Study on the Policy Combination Effect of"Quota Constraint-Subsidy Incentive"
The primary measure for achieving the goal of the carbon peak is to facilitate the consump-tion transition from traditional energy to renewable energy.Exploring the impacts and mechanisms of vari-ous energy policy tools is beneficial for targeted policy adjustments,and holds significant practical implica-tions for carbon emission reduction.Building up an analysis of the driving forces behind energy transition policies,this paper develops a system dynamics model,taking Hubei province as a case study,and con-ducts multi-scenario simulations by integrating two types of policies:quota constraints and subsidy incen-tives.The study findings are as follows:(1)According to the baseline policy scenario,the proportion of renewable energy consumption in Hubei province is projected to reach approximately 19.5％by 2025,with the energy transition goal in the 14th Five-Year Plan being achieved one year later than planned.Howev-er,total energy carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2029.(2)Only three out of the nine combined policy scenarios are in line with the 2025 energy transition target,which necessitates a reevaluation of poli-cy formulation to ensure that at least one scenario incorporates high subsidies or low carbon quota.Addi-tionally,four scenarios fall short of achieving the carbon peak by 2030,highlighting the need for new en-ergy subsidies to either maintain current levels or further reduce the carbon emission quota while decreasing subsidies.(3)"Quota constraint-subsidy incentive"has a good policy combination effect and comple-mentary relationship,and can achieve policy objectives through multiple paths such as scale restriction,technological progress,income incentive,and demand substitution.
Energy transitionNew energy subsidiesCarbon quotaCarbon peak
万方数据
