Trade Cooperation and Industrial Transfer in the Context of RCEP
The current economic situation indicates a notable shift towards"regionalization"in the global industrial and supply chains.As China enhances its opening up,there is a pressing need to bolster regional collaboration and estab-lish a robust,autonomous international industrial division system.The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)presents novel avenues for interregional industrial cooperation and migration.The RCEP is anticipated to facili-tate intra-regional trade and industrial relocation,which carries significant implications for the reconstruction of regional industrial chains and serves as a cornerstone for China's embrace of the"dual circulation"development paradigm.Conse-quently,a thorough exploration of post-RCEP regional trade cooperation and industrial migration takes on paramount strategic importance and urgency.This paper refines the existing theoretical model by endogenizing the share of sectoral consumption to better accom-modate sectoral disparities in tariff reductions.Using the input-output table covering 67 countries provided by the Organi-zation for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD),as well as the tariff reduction and service opening commit-ment table of RCEP member countries classified by HS 8-digit codes,this paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of RCEP's tariff reductions and service opening on regional trade expansion and industrial transfer.Quantitative assessments reveal several pivotal findings.Firstly,the enactment of the RCEP has led to a 1.06％rise in the region's aggregate out-put and an average increase of 1.70％in real income compared to 2020 levels.Secondly,the implementation of the RCEP has spurred intra-regional trade expansion and notably facilitated the surge in intermediate input-propelled industrial reloca-tion,stemming from shifts in regional consumption patterns.China and ASEAN emerge as key players in both the trans-fer and absorption of manufacturing industries,notably in textiles,rubber and plastics,and basic metal manufacturing.Thirdly,China exhibits a recognizable trend of net industrial absorption in high-value-added sectors,such as computer electronic optical equipment manufacturing and motor vehicle manufacturing.Furthermore,the implementation of the RCEP facilitates conditions conducive to industrial division of labor,cooperation,and the accrual of complementary ad-vantages in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and labor-intensive manufacturing within the region.Finally,the implementation of the RCEP spurs the transfer of specialized production in select fields to other global destinations.The contributions of this paper are three-fold.Firstly,this paper utilizes the CES utility function framework to endo-genize changes in the sectoral consumption proportion within the general equilibrium model.This approach aims to better match the implementation characteristics of the tariff reduction differences in various sectors.Secondly,this paper quanti-fies the impact of the RCEP implementation on regional industrial transfer by considering tariff reduction and the opening of the service industry,which enables an examination of industrial transfer in absolute quantity,moving beyond mere rela-tive estimates of the degree of industrial transfer influenced by trade policies.Thirdly,this paper investigates industrial transfer from two perspectives:the final consumption drive and the intermediate input drive.This allows us to simultane-ously examine changes in demand structure and changes in the intermediate input supply chain behind changes in demand.This paper enriches research on the quantitative analysis of the benefits of regional trade agreements utilizing computable general equilibrium models.Furthermore,it advances quantitative estimation of industrial migration and supply chain ad-justment issues against the background of the RCEP.According to the alterations observed in the industrial transfer pathways across various sectors following the imple-mentation of the RCEP,this paper contends that for effective implementation of the RCEP,nations ought to meticu-lously strategize industrial transfer and integration within the region.Firstly,this paper advocates for leveraging the spe-cialized production advantages of regional countries and devising scientifically informed plans for intra-regional industrial collaboration.China,for instance,should intensify collaboration with Japan,South Korea,Australia,and New Zealand in the agricultural domain while bolstering energy cooperation with ASEAN nations to foster the development,produc-tion,and utilization of energy resources.Secondly,there is a call to methodically advance industrial transfer and coopera-tion between China and ASEAN in the manufacturing sector,thereby facilitating the reconfiguration and enhancement of regional industrial chains.Thirdly,China needs to capitalize on the industrial upgrading opportunities stemming from the RCEP,effectively managing the adoption and advancement of high-value-added industries to bolster industrial competi-tiveness.Lastly,member states of the RCEP should collective efforts to fortify and augment the service industry chain,enhancing the quality of regional service industry provision.
万方数据
维普
