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外部资产负债结构与金融危机

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本文首先从理论机制上探讨了不同资产负债配置结构对一国金融危机的影响,然后利用跨国面板数据并结合Logit模型进行实证分析.结果表明,基于存量衡量的以FDI为代表的股权负债、债务资产以及官方储备能够显著降低一国金融危机发生的概率;而以OFDI为代表的股权资产和债务负债则显著提升了一国金融危机发生的概率.进一步地分析揭示资产负债结构对金融危机的影响在不同经济发展程度和金融一体化水平的国家存在差异.从资产负债结构诱发金融危机的作用渠道和调节效应来看,估值效应和净投资收益的上升减弱了 OFDI对本国金融危机发生概率的正向提升作用,资产波动性上升导致OFDI对本国金融危机发生概率的正向提升作用进一步放大,并使债务资产与储备资产对本国金融危机发生概率的降低作用被削弱.
External Asset Liability Structure and Financial Crisis
This paper first discusses the impact of different asset-liability allocation on country's financial crisis from theo-retical mechanism,and then conducts an empirical analysis using cross-country panel data combined with Logit model.The re-sults show that equity liabilities represented by FDI,debt assets and official reserves based on stock measurement can signifi-cantly reduce the probability of country's financial crisis;while equity assets represented by OFDI and debt liabilities can in-crease the probability of financial crisis outbreak.Further analysis reveals that the impact of asset-liability structure on financial crisis varies among countries with different economic development and financial integration levels.From the perspective of the channels and moderating effects through which the asset-liability structure induces financial crises,the increase in valuation ef-fect and net investment income weakens the positive effect of OFDI on probability of financial crises.The rise in asset volatility magnifies the positive effect of OFDI on the probability of domestic financial crisis,while weakens the effect of debt assets and reserve assets on reducing the probability of the outbreak of domestic financial crisis.

International Investment PositionAssetLiabilityFinancial Crisis

汪青、杨权

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江西财经大学国际经贸学院

厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

国际投资头寸结构 资产 负债 金融危机

国家社会科学基金项目"一带一路"建设研究专项

19VDL008

2024

经济学家
西南财经大学 四川社会科学学术基金会(新知研究院)

经济学家

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.594
ISSN:1003-5656
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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