Impact of Changes in Financial Environment on the Downside Risk of Expected Economic Growth--Reanalysis of Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities
Changes in the financial environment can have a significant impact on economic growth.This paper selects the quarterly panel data of 43 countries and economies from 1995 to 2021,and uses the at-risk growth model to study the impact of changes in the financial environment on the expected economic downside risk.The study finds that tighter financial conditions in-crease downside risks in the short term,macro-financial vulnerabilities increase downside risks almost in the next three years,and the impact of external shocks on downside risks varies with different forecast periods.Further analysis of macro-financial vulnerability classification shows that macro-financial imbalances and borrower balance sheet imbalances significantly increase downside risks almost throughout the forecast period,while the impact of financial sector balance sheet imbalances on downside risks is only significant in the first five quarters,and heterogeneity analysis finds that various factors have different impacts on ad-vanced economies and emerging market economies.
Growth at RiskFinancial ConditionsMacro-Financial VulnerabilitiesExternal ShocksDownside Risks
万方数据
