首页|西部脱贫地区相对贫困风险治理路径探究——来自2012-2021年追踪调研数据的证据

西部脱贫地区相对贫困风险治理路径探究——来自2012-2021年追踪调研数据的证据

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要实现共同富裕,必须关注西部脱贫地区的相对贫困现象。基于西部重点脱贫县长达十年的追踪调研数据,采用Probit模型和相对重要性分析等方法,从风险视角对西部脱贫县相对贫困治理路径进行研究。结果显示:风险冲击对农户相对贫困具有正向影响,其中,自然风险、健康风险、教育风险、意外风险对农户相对贫困具有正向影响,人情风险具有负向影响;相对重要性分析发现,健康与人情风险对农户相对贫困影响较大,意外与教育风险次之,自然风险影响较小;老年人口占比是农户家庭陷入相对贫困的首要影响因素;公共性转移收入、私人性转移收入、打工收入、购买保险、参加培训利于降低风险冲击对农户相对贫困的影响,借贷的作用则相反;风险冲击通过降低收入或增加支出对相对贫困产生影响。破解西部脱贫地区相对贫困治理过程中多元化的致贫与返贫风险,应健全相对贫困风险治理机制、完善社会保障兜底机制、优化内生动力培育机制、加快县域产业发展机制。
Exploration of Governance Path for Relative Poverty Risk in Western Poverty Alleviated Areas:Evidence from Tracked Research Data from 2012 to 2021
To achieve common prosperity,attention must be paid to the phenomenon of relative poverty in Western poverty-stricken are-as.Based on a decade-long tracked research data of key poverty-alleviation counties in western China,this paper uses the Probit mod-el and relative importance analysis to study the governance path for relative poverty in western poverty-alleviation counties from a risk perspective.The results show that risk shocks,natural risks,health risks,education risks,and accidental risks have a positive impact on the relative poverty of rural households,while social risks have a negative impact.Relative importance analysis found that health and social risks have a greater impact on the relative poverty of rural households,followed by accidental and education risks,with natu-ral risks having a smaller impact.The proportion of the elderly population is the primary influencing factor for rural households falling into relative poverty.Public transfer income,private transfer income,labor income,purchasing insurance,and participation in training are beneficial in reducing the impact of risk shocks on the relative poverty of rural households,while the impact of borrowing is the op-posite.Risk shocks affect relative poverty by reducing income or increasing expenses.Establishing a robust governance mechanism for relative poverty risk,improving the social security bottom-line mechanism,optimizing the cultivation of endogenous motivation,and accelerating the development of county-level industries have certain reference significance for addressing the diversified causes of pov-erty and re-poverty in the governance process of relative poverty in western poverty-stricken areas.

poverty alleviated areaspoverty-alleviated countiesrelative povertyrisk

顾冬冬、毕洁颖

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中国社会科学院大学 应用经济学院,北京 102488

中国农业科学院 农业信息研究所,北京 100081

脱贫地区 脱贫县 相对贫困 风险

国家社会科学基金重大项目教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项

22ZD05922YJAZH124JBYW-AII202207

2024

经济与管理
河北经贸大学

经济与管理

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.189
ISSN:1003-3890
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)
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