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双边自贸协定与"一带一路"倡议的互补效应:理论与实证

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从显性贸易壁垒和隐性贸易壁垒的替代性出发,结合双边自贸协定和"一带一路"倡议的自身特点剖析了两类政策对于显性贸易壁垒和隐性贸易壁垒的不同作用。利用基于SITC-3 二位码分类的中国双边出口数据进行拟自然实验检验,证实了双边自贸协定可以有效规避关税为代表的显性壁垒,但同时会导致隐性壁垒水平的上升;相反,"一带一路"倡议对于降低隐性贸易壁垒的作用更加显著,但在降低关税壁垒方面则表现不佳。两种贸易壁垒的替代和对冲导致了自贸协定和"一带一路"倡议在单独采用时都无法产生良好的效果,而两类政策的互补性使得二者的结合可以对出口产生最为明显的促进作用。
The Complementary Effect of FTA and"Belt and Road"Initiative:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
Starting from the substitution of explicit trade barriers and implicit trade barriers,this paper tries to discuss the characteris-tics of both FTAs and Belt and Road(B&R)and reveals the different effects of these two policies on two kinds of trade barriers.As an empirical test,a quasi-natural test based on Chinese bilateral export data classified by digital 2 of SITC is designed and proves that the FTAs can effectively avoid the explicit barriers,but will lead to the rise of implicit barriers;while the B&R can play a more significant role in reducing the implicit barriers,but doesn't perform well in reducing explicit barriers.The substitution of two kinds of trade barri-ers will offset the positive effect of either FTAs or B&R when they exist alone,while when they are combined,the complementarity of these two policies will have a more positive effect on exports.

FTA"Belt and Road"explicit trade barriersimplicit trade barrierscomplementary effect

张宇

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中国社会科学院 财经战略研究院,北京 100006

自由贸易协定 "一带一路" 显性贸易壁垒 隐性贸易壁垒 互补效应

国家社会科学基金

22BJL093

2024

经济与管理
河北经贸大学

经济与管理

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.189
ISSN:1003-3890
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)
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