Agricultural Carbon Emission Rebound and Mechanism Analysis:Based on the Perspective of Agricultural Technological Progress
Under the new development pattern,exploring the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions and its influencing mecha-nism is of great significance to the formulation of emission reduction policies.Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the rebound effect of carbon emissions caused by technological progress and its influencing mecha-nism by using the non-expected output super-efficiency SBM model,GML index decomposition,and spatial dynamic panel system GMM model.It is found that there is a"partial rebound effect"on agricultural carbon emissions in China,and the average rebound effect is 0.88,indicating that the emission reduction effect brought by technological progress will be partially offset by the rebound effect.In the time dimension,most years showed a"fire effect",indicating that technological progress led to an increase in total agri-cultural carbon emissions.In terms of spatial dimension,the rebound effect of carbon emissions in northeast China is the largest,and there is a"fire effect",while the rebound effect in Western China is the smallest.The mechanism analysis found that agricultural tech-nological progress did lead to the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions.The rebound effect is directly caused by improving ag-ricultural carbon emission efficiency,and indirectly aggravated by promoting the expansion of agricultural land management scale.
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