The paradigm of modern mainstream economics determines that microeconomics and macroeco-nomics are 1limited to short-term analysis and demand analysis.Economic forecasting is essentially the infer-ence of the future economic trends based on the past data,i.e.the inference of future possibility based on oc-curred phenomena.The selected statistical data for the forecasting mainly involve prices(various price in-dexes),growth(GDP,etc.),and monetary volume(fiscal,financial,and credit data).The economic forecasting based on macroeconomic methods is more accurate in short-term analysis.However,regarding the great value of economic forecasting,short-term forecasting is unsatisfactory and has a limited value.Therefore,econo-mists always strive to conduct medium-to long-term analysis.Short-term economic forecasting is specific and mainly focuses on economic rationality(instrumental rationality),especially the economic growth rate.Long-term economic forecasting is multi-objective and focuses more on intrinsic rationality(direct welfare),pursuing comprehensive economic development.When economists extend from short-term economic forecast-ing to long-term forecasting,the focus shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development,during which they face an unavoidable challenge—transformation of the economic paradigm.Accordingly,more new requirements will be put forward for statistical data and methods.Transforming the paradigm of traditional mainstream economics is inevitable for economic progress.Specifically,the micro-macro analysis paradigm of instrumental rationality will shift toward the three-dimensional analysis paradigm of rationality,culture,and system.
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