"十四五"下半程实现5％以上年均增速的必要性和实现路径
Necessity and Paths of Achieving an Average Annual Growth Rate of Over 5％in the Second Half of the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
陈彦斌 1吴韬2
作者信息
- 1. 首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京 100070
- 2. 中国人民大学经济学院,北京 100872
- 折叠
摘要
"十四五"下半程是进一步落实"十四五"规划目标任务的关键时期.在系统考虑经济增长潜力和支撑条件的基础上,2024年政府工作报告将全年经济增长预期目标设定为国内生产总值增长5％左右,这为"十四五"下半程进一步推动经济高质量发展提供了重要指引.在此基础上,文章建议"十四五"下半程应着力实现5％以上的年均增速,这对于巩固和增强经济回升向好态势及到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化均具有重要意义.针对当前进一步推动经济回升向好面临的内部和外部环境挑战,必须充分运用支撑中国经济增长的有利条件,把握推动中国经济高质量发展的实现路径,扎实做好三个方面的经济工作:第一,着力推动供给侧结构性改革与扩大内需协同发力,推动中国经济实现供给和需求相互牵引的更高水平动态平衡.第二,着力防范化解重点领域风险,维护经济金融大局稳定.第三,着力增强宏观政策取向一致性,发挥中国特色宏观调控体系优势,为"十四五"下半程顺利实现合理增速目标提供政策保障,确保各项政策同向发力、形成合力.
Abstract
The second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan period is critical for achieving the goals and accom-plishing the tasks in the 14th Five Year Plan.Considering the potential and supporting conditions for eco-nomic growth,the 2024 government work report sets the target of GDP growth at around 5％,which provides guidance for promoting high-quality economic development in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan pe-riod.On this basis,this article suggests that efforts should be made to achieve an average annual growth rate of over 5％in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,which is of great significance for consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery and basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035.In response to the internal and external environmental challenges in further promoting economic recov-ery,China should fully utilize the favorable conditions supporting economic growth and practice the path for high-quality economic development.The future work for economic development should be carried out in the following three aspects.First,efforts in supply side structural reform and domestic demand expansion should be made to achieve a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand of China'economy.Secondly,the risks in key areas should be prevented and resolved for maintaining economic and financial stability.Thirdly,measures should be taken to enhance the orientation consistency of macroeconomic policies and thus give full play to the advantages of China's unique macroeconomic regulation system,which will provide policy guarantees for the achievement of the growth target in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan period and ensure the joint forces of policies in the same direction.
关键词
经济增长/供给侧结构性改革/扩大内需/防范化解风险/宏观政策取向一致性Key words
Economic Growth/Supply-Side Structural Reform/Domestic Demand Expansion/Prevention and Resolving of Risks/Orientation Consistency of Macroeconomic Policies引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(72141306)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2023JZDZ025)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据