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中国数字贸易发展水平测度、时空特征及其影响因素分析

Development Level,Spatiotemporal Characteristics,and Influencing Factors of China's Digital Trade

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以2013-2022年中国31个省份为研究对象,采用熵权法、泰尔指数、莫兰指数和地理探测器模型等方法,研究中国数字贸易发展水平的时空演变特征及其影响因素.结果表明:第一,全国整体和七大区域的数字贸易发展水平大体呈逐年上升趋势,但存在一定程度的梯度效应,华东、华南、华北地区发展水平较高,西北、西南、东北地区发展水平较低;区域内差异是中国数字贸易发展水平差异的主要来源.第二,中国数字贸易发展空间集聚特征呈增强态势,沿海地区主要为"高—高"集聚,中部地区表现出"低—高"集聚特征,西部地区则主要呈"低—低"集聚态势.第三,中国数字贸易发展水平及其时空演变的主要影响因素为贸易开放水平、人力资本和经济发展水平,其影响力的变化轨迹为经济发展水平—人力资本—贸易开放水平驱动.为进一步提升我国数字贸易发展水平,应营造安全有序的数字贸易生态系统,推动区域数字贸易均衡增长,构建跨区域数字贸易协调发展联动机制以突破数字贸易的瓶颈.
With the data from 31 provinces in China during 2013-2022,this study uses the entropy weight method,Theil index,Moran index,and geographic detector model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's digital trade.The results show that firstly,the overall devel-opment level of digital trade in China and the seven major regions(north China,northeast China,east China,central China,south China,southwest China,and northwest China)increases year by year,while it demon-strates regional gradients,being high in east China,south China,and north China and low in northwest China,southwest China,and northeast China.Regional differences are the main factor contributing to the develop-ment level differences of digital trade in China.Secondly,the spatial agglomeration of China's digital trade de-velopment is enhancing,with coastal,central,and western areas exhibiting"high-high","low-high",and"low-low"agglomeration patterns,respectively.Thirdly,the main factors influencing the development level and spatiotemporal evolution of China's digital trade are trade openness,human capital,and economic devel-opment,the influences of which follow the trend of economic development-human capital-trade openness.To boost the development of digital trade,China should create a secure and dynamic ecosystem for digital trade,promote coordinated growth of digital trade between regions,and establish a cross-regional coordination and linkage mechanism to break through the bottlenecks of digital trade development.

Digital TradeSpatial AgglomerationRegional Economy

李建军

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湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙 410205

数字贸易 空间集聚 区域经济

2024

经济纵横
吉林省社会科学院

经济纵横

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.616
ISSN:1007-7685
年,卷(期):2024.(11)