Article 15 of China's Criminal Law provides for the regulation of negligence offences with"foresight"as the central element,and the determination of the"likelihood of foreseeing the result"has always played an important role in determining whether the perpetrator should be held liable for negligence.The Japanese"opportunity theory"pro-vides a workable framework for determining the likelihood of foresight,but it is inappropriate to introduce an obligation to gather information and to generalize the understanding of"permissible danger".On the premise of maintaining the basic framework of the"opportunity theory",we can try to take the danger signal that existed at the time of the incident to foretell the danger of the outcome as the starting point for the derivation,according to"1)detecting the danger signal at the time of the act → 2)whether the actor had knowledge or quasi-knowledge of the danger signal → 3)whether it is easy to associate with the basic part of the causal process,affirming the possibility of foreseeing the final result".The process of derivation is appropriately limited by the principle of proportionality,based on the reference to the general population in the same field.In this way,it will help to break the"black box"of negligence that partially exists in judi-cial practice and limit the scope of the establishment of negligence offences to an appropriate extent.
negligence offenceforeseeable possibilitiesdanger signalopportunity theory
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