Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Total Factor Productivity of Enterprises
In the context of increasingly uncertain trade policies,exploring the causal relationship and the underly-ing mechanisms between trade policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity(TFP)is of significant impor-tance for building a modem economic system and promoting high-quality economic development in China.This paper employs the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations(PNTR)to China by the United States following China's ac-cession to the World Trade Organization(WTO)as a quasi-natural experiment.It leverages a difference-in-differences model to infer the causal impact of trade policy uncertainty on firm-level TFP,and employs an endogenous switching model and a marginal treatment effects model to test the mechanisms.The findings indicate that after joining the WTO,there was a significant increase in firm-level TFP in China:TFP tends to rise as trade policy uncertainty decreases,sug-gesting a causal relationship.The firms'export activities serve as an important mechanism for this effect.Consequently,continuing to pursue high-level opening up,actively strengthening international cooperation to seek a stable and continu-ous trade environment remains a vital direction for China's future development.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
