Efficacy Test of Macro-Policy Cross-Cycle Regulation:An Empirical Evidence in Industry level
Cross-cycle macro-policy adjustment is an important tool for steadily promoting high-quality economic development.Based on identifying the causal relationship between variables in the same period with the help of directed acyclic graph(DAG),we use the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive(TVP-SV-VAR)model containing random volatility to screen the short-term maximum response and long-term cumulative effect of macro-policy industry regulation.In this way,the empirical characteristics and practical direction of macro-policy industry regulation effect across cycles are obtained.The research shows that:1)Industry fluctuation is limited by macro-policy control in the same period.2)In the short term,the cross-cycle regulation of fiscal policy does not pay enough attention to the indus-tries represented by small and medium-sized enterprises,and the positive promoting effect turns to the negative inhibiting effect in the long term.3)Most industries can benefit from quantitative monetary policy in the near run.In the long run,although there is diversity due to industry characteristics,the general regulation demonstrates a trend of improvement.Price-based monetary policy has comparative benefits in cross-cycle regulation,thus it is vital to dredge the transmission line to the financial industry while maximizing the impact of real regulation.These studies could provide useful policy guidance for the precise establishment of macro-policy cross-cycle regulation in the industry.
cross-cycle regulationindustry effectdirected acyclic graphtime-varying parameter vector autore-gressive model
万方数据
维普
