首页|基于随机参数Logit的中小城市居民出行方式选择建模

基于随机参数Logit的中小城市居民出行方式选择建模

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为了给中小城市交通规划与管理提供新思路和新方法,分析了中小城市居民出行特征,考虑居民出行方式选择的异质性,构建了基于随机参数Logit的中小城市居民出行选择模型,引入了对交通工具舒适性要求等心理潜变量因素,并采用反映潜变量与指标变量之间关系的结构方程模型标定了参数.结果表明,由结构方程标定潜变量的随机参数Logit模型预测准确率均高于95%,说明结构方程模型具有良好的参数标定效果,构建的随机参数Logit模型具有较好的拟合度.模型效用函数中,行车时间的系数为随机参数,与出行者的个人特征变量、出行特征变量和心理潜变量有关.其中,到公交站台的步行时间对出行效用的影响程度最大,每增加 1单位,时间价值减少 48元.此外,不同出行方式对行车时间的边际效用不同,超过45 min后,公交车的边际效用由增转减.可见,考虑个体心理潜变量等异质性的随机参数Logit模型能够刻画中小城市居民实际出行方式选择行为且对出行特征机理的解释性更强.
Travel mode choice in small and media sized city based on random parameters Logit model
In order to provide new thoughts and new methods for traffic planning and management of small and medium-sized cities,the travel characteristics of residents in small and medium-sized cities was analyzed.Considering the heterogeneity of residents'travel mode choices,a travel mode choice model of based on random parameters Logit was constructed.Factors of psychological latent variables such as the requirement of comfort were introduced,and the structural equation model was used to calibrate the parameters,which reflects the relationship between latent variables and index variables.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the stochastic parameter logit model calibrated by structural equation is higher than 95%,which indicates that the structural equation model has good parameter calibration effect,and the constructed stochastic parameter logit model has good fitting degree.In the utility function of the model,the coefficient of travel time is a random parameter,which is related to the individual characteristic variables,travel characteristic variables and psychological latent variables of travelers.Among them,the walking time to the bus stop has the greatest impact on the travel utility,and the value of time decreases by 48 yuan for each additional unit.In addition,the marginal utility of different travel modes on driving time is different.The marginal utility of bus turns from increase to decrease after 45 min.Therefore,the random parameters Logit model considering the heterogeneity of individual psychological latent variables can describe the actual travel mode choice behavior of residents in small and medium-sized cities,and has a stronger explanation for the mechanism of travel characteristics.

urban transportationtravel mode selectionrandom parametersmall and medium citiesstructural equation modelmarginal effect

庄焱、董春娇、米雪玉、张小雨、王菁

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北京交通大学 综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京 100044

华北理工大学 唐山市空地智慧交通重点实验室,河北 唐山 063210

城市交通 出行方式选择 随机参数 中小城市 结构方程 边际效应

国家自然科学基金项目中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目

723710172020YJS089

2024

吉林大学学报(工学版)
吉林大学

吉林大学学报(工学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.792
ISSN:1671-5497
年,卷(期):2024.54(2)
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