首页|基于Gaussian Copula-贝叶斯动态模型的桥梁构件时变可靠性分析

基于Gaussian Copula-贝叶斯动态模型的桥梁构件时变可靠性分析

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针对桥梁构件的各控制监测点之间存在失效非线性相关性的问题.首先考虑到非线性相关性对桥梁构件可靠性的影响,采用贝叶斯动态模型(BDMs),建立监测数据的动态预测模型;再结合Copula理论建立Gaussian Copula-BDMs,进而计算桥梁构件时变可靠性,同时与不考虑桥梁构件各控制监测点失效相关性得到的可靠性进行比较分析;最后通过算例验证所建模型与方法的合理性.本研究成果将为多元结构体系的可靠性分析提供参考.
Time-variant reliability analysis of bridge members based on Gaussian Copula-Bayesian dynamic models
Nonlinear dependence of multiple control monitoring point failure exists in bridge member,Considering the influence of this nonlinear dependence on bridge member reliability.In this paper,firstly,Bayesian dynamic model(BDMs)is introduced to build the dynamic prediction model of monitoring data.Further,Gaussian Copula-BDMs is given with the fusion of BDMs and Copula theory,which is used to solve the structural reliability.And the solved reliability is compared with that calculated without considering the dependence among bridge member control monitoring point failure.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed models and approaches.The research results will provide the theoretical foundation for the reliability analysis of structural system.

structural engineeringdependenceBayesian dynamic modelsGaussian Copula-BDMstime-dependent reliability analysis

樊学平、周衡、刘月飞

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兰州大学 西部灾害与环境力学教育部重点实验室,兰州 730030

兰州大学 土木工程与力学学院,兰州 730030

结构工程 相关性 贝叶斯动态模型 高斯Copula贝叶斯动态模型 时变可靠性分析

中央高校基金面上项目国家自然科学基金项目甘肃省自然科学基金面上项目甘肃省自然科学基金面上项目

lzujbky-2022-435160824320JR10RA62520JR10RA623

2024

10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20220316

吉林大学学报(工学版)
吉林大学

吉林大学学报(工学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.792
ISSN：1671-5497
年,卷(期)：2024.54(2)
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