Construction and validation of a depression risk prediction model for the elderly in Anhui province
Objective To explore the current situation of depression and its influencing factors among the elderly in Anhui Province,and to construct and verify a prediction model of depression risk among the local elderly.Methods From December 2023 to January 2024.987elderly people aged 60 years and above in Anhui Province were selected by convenience sampling method as the study subjects,and were investigated by self-compiled demographic questionnaire,the Patient Health Questionnaire-9(PHQ-9),the Oslo Social Support Scale-3(OSS-3),the FRAIL Scale for frailty as-sessment(FRAIL),and the SARC-F questionnaire for sarcopenia screening(SARC-F).Dichotomous logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing depression symptoms among the elderly in Anhui Province and to construct a depression risk prediction model.Results The incidence rate of depression symptoms among 987 elderly people was 35.16%.The results of logistic regression analysis showed that suffer from chronic disease(OR=1.410),number of hos-pitalisations in the last two years(1～2:OR=1.922;≥3:OR=2.788),social support(medium support:OR=0.441;strong support:OR=0.101),weakness(OR=2.418)and sarcopenia(OR=3.223)are the independent factors influen-cing the depression among elderly in Anhui Province(P＜0.05).Based on the above factors to build a prediction model and draw a nomogram model,the area under curve(AUC)was 0.806,and the quantitative analysis of the H-L value yielded the results of the fit of the column-line diagram model showed χ2=10.705,P=0.219.Conclusion In this stud-y,the constructed a depression risk prediction model has good prediction performance and provides a reference basis for local health care workers to screen the high-risk group of depression in advance and can take intervention measures in advance.
万方数据
维普
