Application of serum AST/ALT ratio and imaging features in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after receiving transarterial chemoembolization
Application of serum AST/ALT ratio and imaging features in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after receiving transarterial chemoembolization
Objective To explore the relationship of the preoperative serum alanine aminotransferase(ALT)/aspartate aminotransferase(AST)ratio and imaging features to the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)after receiving transarterial chemoembolization(TACE),and to develop a nomogram model used for predicting the patient's overall survival(OS).Methods A total of 211 patients,who were diagnosed as HCC and were treated with TACE as the initial therapy at the Guangci Branch of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University of China between July 2016 and July 2020,were enrolled in this study.The patients were randomly divided into the modeling group(n=139)and validation group(n=72).The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value of AST/ALT ratio.The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted in the modeling group to screen out the independent predictors affecting HCC patient's OS and to establish a prognostic model.Harrell consistency index(C-index)was used to evaluate the predictive ability of the nomogram model for OS in HCC patients,and the calibration curves were plotted to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram model.Results No statistically significant difference in the baseline feature distribution existed between the modeling group and validation group(P＞0.05).The median OS of the modeling group and validation group was 28.5 months(95％CI:22.1-34.9)and 25.1 months(95％CI:19.2-29.0)respectively,the difference was not statistically significant(x2=1.395,P=0.322).The optimal cutoff value of AST/ALT ratio for predicting OS was 1.10,and the area under curve(AUC)value was 0.674(95％CI:0.604-0.753).The Cox regression analysis indicated that the tumor number(HR=2.080,95％CI=1.245-3.475,P=0.005),tumor capsule(HR=1.771,95％CI=1.128-2.780,P=0.013),irregular marginal enhancement(HR=1.884,95％CI=1.190-2.984,P=0.007),and AST/ALT ratio(HR=2.450,95％CI=1.506-3.987,P＜0.01)were the independent prognostic factors for HCC patients receiving TACE treatment.Based on the above variables,a nomogram model for predicting OS was established,and the C-index values in the modeling group and validation group were 0.733(95％CI:0.650-0.826)and 0.770(95％CI:0.688-0.862)respectively.The calibration curves showed that no significant deviations existed between the predictive curves of the prognostic model and the ideal reference curves for one-,2-and 3-year OS.Conclusion The nomogram model,which is established based on the tumor number,imaging features and preoperative AST/ALT ratio,has an excellent value in predicting the prognosis of HCC patients treated with TACE.
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