首页|住房限购、人口老龄化与家庭金融资产配置

住房限购、人口老龄化与家庭金融资产配置

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住房限购如何影响家庭金融资产配置,以及这种影响在不同人口老龄化地区的差异,是政府部门和业界共同关心的问题.本文基于中国城镇住户调查数据和双重差分模型研究发现,相较于非限购城市,限购城市一套房家庭在住房限购政策实施后会提升风险金融资产、非流动性金融资产的持有份额.考虑人口老龄化因素后发现:因为老年抚养比上升会造成家庭的风险厌恶程度和流动性需求增加,所以在老年抚养比较高的城市中,住房限购对一套房家庭金融资产配置的影响有限;而由于人口预期寿命延长引致家庭储蓄率上升,所以在预期寿命较长的城市中,住房限购促使一套房家庭拉长金融资产配置的期限结构.本研究有助于理解人口老龄化背景下,房地产市场和金融市场发展间的关系,为从人口结构视角构建房地产调控的长效机制,促进资本市场健康有序发展提供一定的启示.
Housing Purchase Restriction,Population Aging and Household Financial Asset Allocation
The impact of housing purchase restrictions on household financial asset allocation in China,especially in the context of population aging,is a critical concern for both policymakers and industry stakeholders.This study uti-lizes data from the Urban Household Survey in China and employs a differences-in-differences method to examine this issue.Our findings indicate that,compared to cities without purchase restrictions(NPC),households in cities with pur-chase restrictions(RPC)tend to increase their holdings of risky and non-liquid financial assets following the implementa-tion of these policies.Furthermore,when accounting for population aging,we observe that cities with a high elderly de-pendency ratio experience a limited impact of housing purchase restrictions on the financial asset allocation of single-household families.This is attributed to increased risk aversion and higher liquidity demands.Conversely,in cities with higher life expectancy,the extended lifespan of elderly individuals leads to higher household savings rates,resulting in a longer-term structure of financial asset allocation in response to housing purchase restrictions.This study enhances our understanding of the interplay between real estate market developments and financial markets amidst population aging.It also provides valuable insights for the establishment of long-term real estate regulatory mechanisms from a demographic perspective,thereby supporting the healthy and orderly development of the capital market.

Real estateAging financeSilver economyHousehold financeAsset management

杨波、王向楠、李若蔓

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云南大学经济学院

中国社会科学院金融研究所

房地产 养老金融 家庭金融 资产管理 银发经济

国家社会科学基金一般项目国家自然科学基金地区项目云南省科技计划项目

22BGL06272363034202201AU070093

2024

金融评论
中国社会科学院金融研究所

金融评论

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.304
ISSN:1674-7690
年,卷(期):2024.16(3)
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