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长三角地区粮食生产空间格局演化及影响因素

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近年来,长三角地区粮食安全问题日渐突出.为了探究影响粮食生产的主要因素,以长三角地区 41个地级及以上城市为研究单元,运用标准差椭圆法、重心分析法、空间杜宾模型等对2011-2020 年长三角地区粮食生产空间格局演变及影响因素进行实证分析.结果表明,长三角各城市粮食产量差异逐年增大,总体呈自西北向东南递减的空间分布格局,并进一步向苏北、皖北地区收缩集聚,区域内粮食产量具有显著的空间相关性.粮食生产受到该地区土地、机械、化肥等生产要素投入及相邻地区交通、地区经济发展水平的正向影响,且受到该地区和相邻地区城镇化率、互联网宽带接入率的共同影响.建议在保障区域粮食安全的过程中,要打破行政区域限制,重视各要素的空间效应,跨区域重组资源,实现资源的优势互补.
Evolution and influencing factors of spatial pattern of grain production in the Yangtze River Delta region
The issue of food security in the Yangtze River Delta region is becoming increasingly prominent.In order to explore the main factors affecting grain production,41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region were taken as research ob-jects,and the evolution of regional grain production spatial pattern and its influencing factors were analyzed by using stand-ard deviation ellipse,gravity center analysis,and spatial Durbin model(SDM).The results showed that the difference of grain production in the Yangtze River Delta region was increasing gradually,and the overall spatial distribution pattern was decreasing from northwest to southeast,and further shrinking and clustering to northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui.Re-gional grain production had significant spatial correlation.Grain production was positively affected by the input of production factors such as land,machinery and fertilizer,as well as the level of transportation and economic development in adjacent areas.Also,it was affected by the urbanization rate and Internet broadband access rate of local and adjacent areas.It is sug-gested that we should break the restriction of administrative region,attach importance to the spatial effect of various factors,reorganize resources across regions,and realize the complementary advantage of resources in the process of ensuring food security in the Yangtze River Delta region.

grain productiondistribution changespatial effectYangtze River Delta region

冯娜娜、张忠明、李纪岳、赵跃龙

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农业农村部规划设计研究院,北京 100125

粮食生产 布局变迁 空间效应 长三角地区

农业农村部规划设计研究院"农规英才计划"项目农业农村部规划设计研究院青年带头人项目

NGYC-2021-09QD202105

2024

江苏农业学报
江苏省农业科学院

江苏农业学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.093
ISSN:1000-4440
年,卷(期):2024.40(3)
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