宁乡烟区界限气温及生育期气温变化特征研究
Study on the variation characteristics of boundary temperature and growth period temperature in Ningxiang tobacco area
向世鹏 1彭煜 2杨佳蒴 3周世民 1何命军 1翟争光 1钱秋芳 1陈治锋 1谢鹏飞 1龙大彬 1李强2
作者信息
- 1. 湖南省烟草公司长沙市公司,长沙 410007
- 2. 湖南农业大学农学院,长沙 410128
- 3. 湖南省烟草科学研究所,长沙 410004
- 折叠
摘要
以1991-2020年宁乡市逐日气象观测数据为基础资料,采用趋势分析和Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,分析宁乡烟区界限气温和生育期气温的变化特征.结果表明:①近30年来,气温稳定通过8、13 ℃的初日显著提前,日均温小于8和13 ℃的日数显著减少;最高气温超过35 ℃的首日显著提前,且出现35 ℃气温的日数呈增加趋势.②伸根期、旺长期和成熟期日均温均呈升高趋势,线性拟合倾向率每10年分别达1.51、0.57和1.18 ℃,其中伸根期和成熟期日均温变化达显著水平,分别于1999和2007年后发生突变.总体上宁乡烟区烤烟伸根期气温升高和通过8、13 ℃初日提前有利于烤烟早生快发,而成熟期气温升高和35 ℃首日提前会增加烤烟高温逼熟的风险.根据以上变化,有必要在试验的基础上优化烤烟生产的物候期.
Abstract
Based on the daily meteorological observation data of Ningxiang from 1991 to 2020,the variation character-istics of boundary temperature and growth period temperature in Ningxiang tobacco region were analyzed by trend analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation detection.The results show that:① In recent 30 years,the first day when the temperature was stable through 8 and 13 ℃ is significantly advanced,and the number of days when the daily average temperature is less than 8 and 13 ℃ was significantly reduced;The first day when the maximum temperature exceeded 35 ℃ was signifi-cantly advanced,and the number of days when 35 ℃ appears is increasing.② The average temperature in the root exten-sion stage,the long-term average temperature and the mature stage average temperature all showed an increasing trend,and the linear fitting tendency rates per 10-year reached 1.51,0.57 and 1.18 ℃ respectively.Among them,the average temperature changes in the root extension stage and the mature stage reached a significant level,and mutations occurred after 1999 and 2007 respectively.In general,the rise of temperature in the root extension period and the advance of the first day through 8 and 13 ℃ in Ningxiang tobacco area will be conducive to the early growth and rapid development of flue-cured tobacco,while the rise of temperature in the maturity period and the advance of the first day of 35 ℃ will in-crease the risk of high temperature forced ripening of flue-cured tobacco;According to the above changes,it is necessary to optimize the phenological period of flue-cured tobacco production on the basis of experiments.
关键词
烤烟/界限温度/生育期温度/变化特征Key words
flue-cured tobacco/boundary temperature/temperature during growth period/variation characteristics引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国烟草总公司科技项目(110202101037)
中国烟草总公司科技项目(110202103011)
湖南省烟草公司长沙市公司(20-24A01)
湖南省烟草公司长沙市公司(21-24A03)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据