Value of MVP ECG risk score on predicting postoperative recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation
Objective To investigate the value of body surface MVP ECG risk score before radiofrequency catheter ablation on predicting postoperative recurrence in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF).Methods We selected 299 inpatients with PAF who had been treated by radiofreqency catheter ablation as study objects.According to the presence or absence of the recurrence of atrial fibrillation(AF),they were divided into AF recurrence group(n=40)and sinus rhythm maintenance group(n=259).The preoperative MVP risk scores were compared between the two groups.By using ROC curve analysis,we determined the optimal cut-off value of MVP risk score on predicting postoperative recurrence after AF ablation,while the critical value of MVP risk score was utilized in the survival curve analysis of postoperative recurrence after AF ablation.Results(ⅰ)The follow-up time of patients with PAF after ablation was 22.0(11.0,35.0)months,and the overall non-recurrence rate was 86.6％.(ⅱ)Compared with the sinus rhythm maintenance group,patients in the AF recurrence group had longer course of disease[12.0(3.0,48.0)months vs.36.0(11.5,72.0)months,P＜0.05],and increased preoperative MVP risk score[(2.20±0.94)points vs.(3.40±1.12)points,P＜0.01)].There were no statistically significant differences in the remaining preoperative indexes between the two groups.(ⅲ)Univariate Cox regression analysis suggested that preoperative MVP risk score and course of disease were risk factors for postoperative recurrence after ablation.Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high preoperative MVP risk score(OR=2.261,95％CI 1.700-3.007,P＜0.01)was an independent risk factor for postoperative recurrence after PAF ablation.(ⅳ)The area under curve(AUC)of preoperative MVP risk score was 0.76(95％CI 0.674-0.843,P＜0.05)for predicting postoperative recurrence after ablation in PAF patients;the optimal cut-off value was 3 points,the sensitivity was 63.0％,and the specificity was 85.0％.Conclusion Preoperative MVP ECG risk score is valuable for predicting postoperative recurrence of PAF after radiofrequency catheter ablation.
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