Provincial Transportation Logistics Development Level Evaluation in Yangtze River Delta Based on Multi-Level Dynamic Evaluation Model
To promote the high-quality development of provincial transportation logistics in Yangtze River Delta,a method was proposed to evaluate the dynamic development level of the transportation logistics objectively.Firstly,based on the national strategy of sustainable development and the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal orientation,in order to promote the green and sustainable develop-ment of transportation logistics,22 indicators were selected from the perspectives of transportation lo-gistics development strength and development potential to construct an evaluation index system.Then,considering that the regional transportation logistics development level has dynamic evolution charac-teristics,aiming at the dynamic system engineering problem of transportation logistics development,a multi-level dynamic evaluation model that could effectively capture the time series data information was proposed.It could realize the scientific evaluation of the development level of transportation logis-tics,the analysis of the overall regional development trend,the development trend of provinces,and the differences of development level among provinces,as well as the prediction of the future develop-ment trend and the analysis of its dynamic evolution rules.In order to capture the dynamic evolution characteristics of transportation logistics development level effectively,the nonlinear programming method and the idea of maximizing the total squared deviation were used to quantify the differences in the importance of data at different times and the differences in the importance of different factors,re-spectively,to improve the objectivity and scientific validity of the evaluation results.And the compre-hensive evaluation value of the transportation logistics development level of each province was deter-mined by processing the data from bottom to top.Then,the Gini coefficient was applied to analyze the difference of logistics development level among provinces and the Markov Chain was used to predict the dynamic evolution trend of transportation logistics development level in each province.Finally,based on the statistical data of the transportation logistics development status of four provinces in Yangtze River Delta from 2018 to 2022,the case study was conducted.The results show that improv-ing the green development potential is of great importance to the improvement of the transportation lo-gistics development level.The transportation logistics development level in this region is generally on the rise.In the dynamic evolution process,the difference in development level between provinces shows an expanding trend.In conclusion,in order to improve the development quality of transporta-tion logistics in Yangtze River Delta,it is necessary to accelerate the green transformation of provincial transportation logistics,and make comprehensive and coordinated development plans from a global perspective to achieve balanced and coordinated development among provinces in the region.
dynamic evaluationtransportation logistics development leveltime seriesDagum Gi-ni coefficientMarkov chain
万方数据
维普
