Prediction of Transportation Industry Carbon Peak in China
Transportation industry faces a series of challenges under the strategy of"carbon peak"due to the high carbon emissions.This paper analyzes the current situation of the carbon emissions in passenger and freight transportation in China.Based on the statistical data and relevant research results,this study simulates the carbon emissions of the transportation industry including private cars.The carbon emission factors of each transportation mode are calculated.The trend of passenger and freight turnover in 2019 to 2040 is predicted based on the experience of some developed countries.Taking 2040 as the target year,the scenarios of future transportation structure and carbon emission factors were designed,and the time and value of carbon peak for transportation in China are estimated.The results show that the transportation carbon emission,including private cars,is 1.11 billion tons in 2020.It is predicted that the passenger transportation demand will be 8.2 to 8.7 trillion person-kilometers,and the freight transportation demand will be 27.3 to 28.7 trillion tonnage kilometers in 2040.It is verified that it would be difficult to achieve the carbon peak before 2040 only through improving the transportation structure,and it is also significantly important to promote the upgrading of clean transportation technology.The scenario analysis shows that the transportation industry is expected to achieve the carbon peak in 2031 to 2034 by encouraging the transformation of transportation structure such as"road to rail"and"road to water",and promoting the cleanliness of roadway transportation.
万方数据
维普
