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碳交易价格不确定下冷链多式联运路径优化

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为解决碳交易价格不确定下的冷链多式联运路径优化问题,本文依据现行市场碳交易价格变化特征,运用三角模糊数描述碳交易价格,结合多式联运经营人的风险偏好水平和客户的软硬运输时间窗要求,分别建立碳交易价格模糊可信度函数及客户满意度函数。据此构建考虑运输成本和客户满意度的双目标优化模型,设计模糊自适应非支配排序遗传算法(FANSGA-Ⅱ)。数值算例结果显示,相较于随机均匀分布方法,三角模糊数方法可使优化结果更加稳定,运输成本变异系数可由20。3%降到4。4%左右。敏感性分析结果表明,多式联运经营人风险偏好水平与铁路和水路运输方式的占比呈正相关关系,同时,实行碳交易政策后,可以使碳排放量下降至少7%。货物的制冷温度越低,碳交易风险偏好值对运输方式选择的敏感性越高,但当风险偏好值达到某特定值时,选择的运输方式将不再改变。研究结论可为多式联运经营人制定冷链运输方案提供参考。
Optimization of Cold Chain Multimodal Transportation Route Under Carbon Trading Price Uncertainty
This paper addresses the problem of optimizing cold chain multimodal transportation routes under uncertainty of carbon trading prices.Triangular fuzzy numbers are employed to describe the carbon trading price,taking into account the characteristics of price fluctuations in the current market.The risk preference level of multimodal transport operators and the customer's soft and hard transport time window requirements are combined to establish the fuzzy credibility function for the carbon trading price and the customer satisfaction function,respectively.Accordingly,a bi-objective optimization model considering transportation cost and customer satisfaction is constructed,and a fuzzy adaptive non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm(FANSGA-Ⅱ)is designed.The numerical example results show that compared with the random uniform distribution method,the triangular fuzzy number method can enhance the stability of the optimization results and reduce the coefficient of variation of transportation cost from 20.3%to approximately 4.4%.The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the level of risk preference of multimodal transport operators is positively correlated with the proportion of railroad and waterway transport modes.Furthermore,the implementation of a carbon trading policy is predicted to result in a reduction in carbon emissions by at least 7%.The lower the refrigeration temperature of the cargo,the more sensitive the carbon trading risk preference value is to the choice of transportation mode.However,once the risk preference value reaches a specific value,the chosen transportation mode will no longer change.The findings of the study can provide a reference for multimodal transport operators to develop cold chain transportation options.

integrated transportationcold chain multimodal transportation routedual-objective optimization modelcarbon trading priceFANSGA-Ⅱ

杨华龙、于果

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大连海事大学,交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连 116026

综合运输 冷链多式联运路径 双目标优化模型 碳交易价格 FANSGA-Ⅱ

2024

交通运输系统工程与信息
中国系统工程学会

交通运输系统工程与信息

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.664
ISSN:1009-6744
年,卷(期):2024.24(6)