Developing new energy vehicles in the current era is a crucial step toward enhancing energy conservation and reducing emissions in China's transportation sector.This paper employs a Cournot evolutionary model that takes market share into account to analyze the competitive dynamics among new energy vehicle manufacturers under the dual-credit policy,offering recommendations based on the findings.The study identifies several key points:first,the necessary condition for halting dual-credit trading is the internal credit balance among internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicle manufacturers.The dual-credit policy will officially conclude once the goal of eliminating negative credits for ICE manufacturers is realized.Second,during the initial phase of credit trading,the policy tends to favor less competitive new energy vehicle manufacturers,resulting in a"bad money drives out good"phenomenon,where low-quality products dominate the market and lead to regulatory failures.As ICE manufacturers enter the market,the marginal effect of the dual-credit policy on promoting the growth of the new energy vehicle market diminishes,and the competitive landscape stabilizes based on the varying levels of competitiveness among all manufacturers.Third,the cyclical evolution of the dual-credit market influences new energy vehicle manufacturers,transitioning from a positive impact that offsets production costs in the early phase to a negative impact that constrains capacity growth in the later phase.For ICE manufacturers,the policy shifts from initially undermining their competitive advantage to later promoting their transformation and development.Ultimately,the disappearance of bonus from the credit policy will compel new energy vehicle manufacturers to prioritize technological innovation,thereby enhancing their core competitiveness and management capabilities,and fostering high-quality development within the transportation sector.
关键词
交通运输经济/竞争演变/博弈/新能源汽车/双积分政策
Key words
transportation economy/competitive evolution/game/new energy vehicle/dual-credit policy
维普
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