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西南石漠化地区粮食作物时空变化及影响因素研究

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[目的]分析西南石漠化地区粮食作物播种面积的时空变化特征及影响因素。[方法]基于2015-2020年西南石漠化地区粮食种植数据与社会经济指标数据，运用农作物种植结构类型指数、空间自相关、空间误差回归模型等模型方法，在县域尺度上进行研究。[结果]2015-2020年粮食播种面积呈波动性增加趋势，玉米播种面积整体下降，稻谷和薯类播种面积整体上升;粮食种植结构类型共有54种，区域种植结构类型丰富度指数波动上升，玉米型县域数目减少，稻谷型增加;云南省石漠化地区HH集聚区的粮食作物为玉米与薯类，广西石漠化地区HH集聚区粮食作物为玉米与稻谷，而在贵州省石漠化地区，3种粮食作物分别有相应的HH集聚种植区;此外，自然地理环境、总人口、居民可支配收入、产业发展是影响西南石漠化地区粮食、玉米、稻谷、薯类播种面积的主要因素，亩均利润对玉米播种面积具有显著正向效益，国家政策促进了西南石漠化地区玉米面积的调减与种植结构的改变。[结论]2015-2020年西南石漠化地区主要受国家政策影响，减少玉米非优势区的播种面积，优化了该区域的种植结构。
Study on spatial-temporal changes and influencing factors of grain crops in rocky desertification area of Southwest China
[Objective]Based on the data of grain planting and socio-economic indicators in the rocky desertification area of Southwest China from 2015 to 2020,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of grain planting in the rocky desertification area of Southwest China were analyzed on the county scale.[Method]The model methods including crop planting structure type index,spatial autocorrelation and spatial error regression model were adopted.[Result]The results showed that the grain planting area showed a fluctuating increasing trend from 2015 to 2020.The sown area of corn decreased,and the sown area of rice and potato increased.There were 54 kinds of grain planting structure types.The richness index of regional planting structure types fluctuated,the number of corn-type counties decreased,and the number of rice-type counties increased.The grain crops in the HH agglomeration area of the rocky desertification area in Yunnan Province were corn and potato,and those in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were corn and rice,and in Guizhou Province,there were corresponding HH agglomeration planting areas for the three grain crops;In addition,the natural geographical environment,total population,disposable income of residents and industrial development were the main factors affecting the sown area of grain,corn,rice and potato in the rocky desertification area of Southwest China.The average profit per mu had a significant positive impact on the sown area of corn.National policies have promoted the reduction of corn area and the change of planting structure in the rocky desertification area of Southwest China.[Conclusion]From 2015 to 2020,the area of rocky desertification in Southwest China was mainly affected by national policies,which reduced the planting area of non-dominant maize areas and optimized the planting structure of the region.

southwest rocky desertification areafood cropsspatial autocorrelationtemporal and spatial changesinfluencing factors

王儒桐、刘现、贾露瑶、张凤、刘世薇

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西南大学 地理科学学院,重庆 400715

西南大学 旅游研究所,重庆 400715

西南石漠化地区 粮食作物 空间自相关 时空变化 影响因素

国家自然科学基金面上项目重庆市自然科学基金面上项目西南大学创新研究2035先导计划项目西南大学青年团队转向资金资助项目

42171175CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0753SWUPilotPlan031SWU-XJPY202307

2024

10.3724/aauj.2024001

江西农业大学学报
江西农业大学

江西农业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.748
ISSN：1000-2286
年,卷(期)：2024.46(1)
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