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全球五大洲稻田生产效率及甲烷排放趋势研究

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[目的]水稻是全球近一半人口的主粮。随着全球人口持续增长,需要生产更多的稻米。然而,即使CO2排放量得以很好地控制,以现在全球甲烷排放量的温室效应,也足以挑战《巴黎协定》目标。[方法]全球五大洲稻米生产效率与联合国2030年消除饥饿的可持续发展目标、"全球甲烷承诺"的实现与否紧密关联,为此,研究利用联合国粮食及农业组织和联合国人口司相关数据,探析全球稻田生产效率格局及甲烷排放趋势。[结果](1)2020年全球水稻种植甲烷排放量为24 503 974 t。为了满足2030年全球稻米需求,达成"全球甲烷承诺"目标,2020-2030年,水稻种植甲烷排放强度需降低19。48%~22。15%;(2)干湿交替浅水灌溉,翻耕+秸秆碳化还田,控释肥料、有机肥,铁(Ⅲ)肥、种植高产杂交水稻和稻-油或稻-麦轮作等是降低甲烷排放强度的重要举措;(3)非洲地区将是"联合国2030年消除饥饿发展目标"最大挑战。由于较高的粮食生产环境成本(大约为50 kg/t)和人口增长率(23。83%~27。98%),非洲的粮食对外依存度将进一步升高,国际粮食价格呈上涨趋势;(4)稻米的温室效应至少是小麦、玉米的3倍以上,但是单位质量的小麦和玉米提供的热量、蛋白质和脂肪分别比大米高6。69%~41。54%、7。69%~125。00%和64。00%~277。78%。[结论]水稻生产甲烷减排压力大,持续加强田间管理和耕种技术创新发展的同时,大米消费大国应该大力推行主粮多样化战略。最后,本研究还提供了相关政策建议,以满足全球持续增长的人口粮食需求的同时,为降低农业温室气体排放量提供理论支撑。
Research on rice field productivity and methane emission trends across five continents
[Objective]Rice is the staple food for nearly half of the global population.With the continuous growth of the world's population,there is a need to produce more rice.However,even with effective control of carbon dioxide emissions,the greenhouse effect caused by global methane emissions poses a significant challenge to the targets set by the Paris Agreement.[Method]The productivity of rice production across the five continents is closely linked to the achievement of the United Nations'Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating hunger by 2030 and the global methane commitment.To explore this relationship,this study utilizes relevant data from the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)and the United Nations Population Division to analyze the global patterns of rice field productivity and methane emission trends.[Result]The research findings indicate that:(1)In 2020,global methane emissions from rice cultivation amounted to 24 503 974 metric tons.To meet the global rice demand by 2030 and achieve the goals of the global methane commitment,methane intensity in rice cultivation needs to be reduced by 19.48%-22.15%during the period from 2020 to 2030.(2)Important measures to reduce methane intensity include the adoption of intermittent flooding irrigation,tillage combined with straw carbonization and return,controlled-release fertilizers,organic fertilizers,iron(III)fertilizers,cultivating high-yielding hybrid rice,and rice-oil or rice-wheat rotation.(3)The African region poses the greatest challenge to achieving the United Nations'goal of eliminating hunger by 2030.Due to higher environmental costs of food production(approximately 50 kg CH4/t rice)and population growth rates(23.83%-27.98%),as well as the upward trend in food prices,Africa's dependence on external food sources is expected to increase further.(4)The greenhouse effect of rice is at least three times higher than that of wheat and maize.However,per unit weight,wheat and maize provide approximately 6.69%-41.54%,7.69%-125.00%,and 64.00%-277.78%more calories,protein,and fat,respectively,compared to rice.[Conclusion]Rice production methane emission reduction pressure,while continuously strengthening field management and cultivation technology innovation development,major rice-consuming countries in Asia should vigorously promote a strategy of diversifying staple foods.Finally,this study provides relevant policy recommendations to support the theoretical framework for meeting the increasing global demand for food while reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.

methane intensityricefood securityParis Agreementglobal methane emission commitment

汤宏波、余海峰、赵素婷、李富山、吕新华

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中国科学院 武汉文献情报中心/科技大数据湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430071

中国科学院 武汉植物园/中国科学院中-非联合研究中心,湖北 武汉 430074

甲烷排放强度 水稻 粮食安全 "巴黎协定" "全球甲烷排放承诺"

中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项课题中国科学院国际合作局出国专题研究

GHJ-ZLZX-2024-07科际批字0034号

2024

江西农业大学学报
江西农业大学

江西农业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.748
ISSN:1000-2286
年,卷(期):2024.46(3)