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玉溪烤烟旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照灾害的时空分布特征

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为分析玉溪烤烟在旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照灾害的时空分布特征,选取1990-2019年云南省玉溪市降水量、日照时数等气象资料,结合灾害等级指标,对烤烟旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照的年平均次数、过程平均天数、发生频率与覆盖范围的变化特征进行分析,并基于气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析灾害发生次数的年际演变.结果表明:时间上,烤烟旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数呈下降趋势,各等级灾害的发生频率和覆盖范围表现为轻度>中度>重度,成熟期阴雨寡照的覆盖范围高于旺长期;从灾害发生次数的年际演变上看,虽然两个生育期内发生次数均呈下降趋势,但变化趋势并不显著.空间上,阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数、过程平均天数、发生频率(除成熟期)表现为西南低东北高的特点,成熟期灾害的覆盖范围和程度比旺长期大.旺长期阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数与发生频率呈显著正相关,成熟期灾害的年平均次数与过程平均天数呈显著正相关.
Spatio-temporal Distribution of Overcast and Rainy Days Disasters in the Vigorous Growing Period and Mature Period of Yuxi Flue-cured Tobacco
In order to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of overcast and rainy days disasters for Yuxi Flue-cured Tobacco in the vigorous growing period and mature period.The meteorological data(precipitation and sunshine du-ration)in Yuxi,Yunnan Province,from 1990 to 2019 were selected and the variation characteristics of the average annual num-ber,average days,frequency and scope of overcast and rainy days in the vigorous growing period and mature period of flue-cured tobacco were analyzed combined with disaster grade indexes.Based on climate propensity rate and Mann-Kendall test,the interannual evolution of disaster occurrence was discussed.The results showed that the average annual numbers of overcast and rainy days disasters in the vigorous growing period and mature period of Flue-cured tobacco exhibited a decreasing trend.The frequency and coverage of disasters in each grade showed mild>moderate>severe,and the coverage of overcast and rainy days disasters in the mature period was higher than that of the vigorous growing period.Although the frequency of disasters showed a decreasing trend in both growth periods,the variation trend was not significant.Spatially,the average annual num-bers,average days and frequency(except for the mature period)of overcast and rainy days disaster showed lower values in southwest and higher values in northeast,and the coverage and extent in the mature period was greater than that in the vigor-ous growing period.The average annual numbers of overcast and rainy days in the vigorous growing period significantly and positively correlated with the frequency of occurrence,and the average annual numbers of disasters in the mature period signifi cantly and positively correlated with the average days.

flue-cured tobaccoovercast and rainy daysvigorous growing periodmature period

李玉聪、乌尔娜、景元书、冉楚钰

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江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京 210044

南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京 210044

新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

新疆人工影响天气工程技术研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐8300025

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烤烟 阴雨寡照 旺长期 成熟期

2024

气象与减灾研究
江西省气象学会

气象与减灾研究

影响因子:0.881
ISSN:1007-9033
年,卷(期):2024.47(2)