气象与减灾研究2024,Vol.47Issue(3) :212-220.DOI:10.12013/qxyjzyj2024-026

长江中下游地区夏季高温热浪和人口暴露风险时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Summer Heatwaves and Population Exposure Risks in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

吴楠 张玮 马力 占龙飞 万昕成
气象与减灾研究2024,Vol.47Issue(3) :212-220.DOI:10.12013/qxyjzyj2024-026

长江中下游地区夏季高温热浪和人口暴露风险时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Summer Heatwaves and Population Exposure Risks in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

吴楠 1张玮 1马力 1占龙飞 2万昕成1
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作者信息

  • 1. 江西省气象灾害应急预警中心,江西南昌 330096
  • 2. 江西省气候中心,江西南昌 330096
  • 折叠

摘要

利用长江中下游地区国家气象站逐日最高气温数据和人口空间分布数据,采用线性回归等方法分析了 1961-2020年长江中下游地区夏季平均高温热浪、强烈高温热浪、极端高温热浪的发生频次、有效积温和持续天数的时空特征、变化趋势以及不同热浪强度下的人口暴露风险.结果表明:长江中下游地区夏季平均高温热浪、强烈高温热浪、极端高温热浪三类热浪的发生频次、有效积温、持续天数分布形态较为相似,整体呈现东南多西北少的空间分布特征,大值区均位于长江中下游东南部.随着热浪强度的增加,热浪发生频次、有效积温、持续天数和变化趋势的量级逐渐减少,大值区范围逐渐缩小.在长江中下游地区东南部热浪呈显著增加的趋势,在安徽省、江苏省北部和湖北省西部呈显著减少的趋势.三类热浪影响下的人口暴露高风险范围先减小再扩大,在1995-1999年范围最小.受高温热浪和强烈高温热浪影响,人口暴露风险较大的地区仍然是长江中下游的东南部.而对极端高温热浪,人口暴露高风险出现在江西省北部和浙江省西部小范围地区.

Abstract

Using the daily maximum temperature data and population spatial distribution data from national meteorological sta-tions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,linear regression methods was used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of the frequency of occurrence,effective accumulated temperature,and duration of summer average heatwaves,intense heatwaves,and extreme heatwaves,as well as the population exposure risks under different heatwave inten-sities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2020.The results indicated that the distribution pat-terns of the frequency,accumulated effective temperature,and duration of seasonal mean heatwaves,severe heatwaves,and extreme heatwaves were relatively similar,showing a general trend of higher occurrences in the southeast and fewer in the northwest.The high-value areas were all located in the southeastern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.As the intensity of heat waves increased,the frequency,effective accumulated temperature,duration,and magnitude of chan-ges gradually decreased,and the range of high-value areas gradually narrowed.The distribution of trend changes followed the same pattern,with significant increases in the southeastern part of the region and significant decreases in the western part of Hubei Province and the northern parts of Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces.The high-risk range of population exposure affected by the three types of heatwaves first decreased and then expanded,with the smallest range from 1995 to 1999.The areas with higher population exposure risks under the influence of HW and SHW were still in the southeastern part of the middle and low-er reaches of the Yangtze River,while the high-risk exposure to EHW was sparsely found in the northern part of Jiangxi Prov-ince and the western part of Zhejiang Province.

关键词

高温热浪/人口暴露风险/时空变化特征/长江中下游

Key words

high-temperature heatwaves/population exposure risks/spatiotemporal variation characteristics/middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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出版年

2024
气象与减灾研究
江西省气象学会

气象与减灾研究

影响因子:0.881
ISSN:1007-9033
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