首页|HEC-HMS模型在江西省山区中小河流洪水预报中的适用性研究

HEC-HMS模型在江西省山区中小河流洪水预报中的适用性研究

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山区洪水暴涨陡落,常造成严重经济损失和人员伤亡,实现中小河流洪水预报在防洪减灾中十分重要.为探究HEC-HMS分布式水文模型在江西省山区中小河流的适用性,以蜀水流域为研究区,构建了基于HEC-HMS的蜀水流域分布式水文模型,选用 2013-2019 年间的 12 场降雨对模型进行参数率定、敏感性分析和洪水过程模拟.结果表明:模型参数中CN值为最敏感参数;模型预测值与实测值结果显示洪峰流量和峰现时间合格率均为 91.67%,径流深合格率为100%,确定性系数均高于 0.7;HEC-HMS模型在蜀水流域中有较好的模拟效果,可为江西省山区中小河流域洪水预报提供参考.
Applicability of HEC-HMS model in flood forecasting of small-middle rivers in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province
The sudden rise and fall of floods in mountainous areas often cause serious economic losses and casualties.Realizing flood forecasting for small-middle rivers is crucial in flood control and disaster reduction.To explore the applicability of the HEC-HMS distributed hydrological model in small-middle rivers in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province,a distributed hydrological model based on HEC-HMS was constructed in the Shushui river basin as the research area.The model was selected for parameter calibration,sensitivity analysis,and flood process simulation using 12 rainfall events from 2013 to 2019.The results indicate that the CN value is the most sensitive parameter among the model parameters.The predicted and measured values of the model show that the qualified rates of peak flow and peak time are both 91.67%,the qualified rate of runoff depth is 100%,and the certainty coefficient is higher than 0.7.It shows that the HEC-HMS model has good simulation results in the Shushui river basin,which can provide reference for flood forecasting in small and medium-sized river basins in mountainous areas of Jiangxi province.

HEC-HMSSmall-middle riversFlood forecastShushui river basinApplicability

游云、许小华、朱龙辉、王小笑、刘业伟、付佳伟

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江西省水利科学院,江西南昌,330029

江西省鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心,江西南昌,330029

江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室,江西南昌,330029

HEC-HMS 中小河流 洪水预报 蜀水流域 适用性

国家科技奖后备项目培育计划江西省水利科技项目江西省水利科技项目

20223AEI91008202223YBKT25202325ZDKT19

2024

江西水利科技
江西省水利科学研究院 江西省水利厅科技情报站 江西省水利学会

江西水利科技

影响因子:0.292
ISSN:1004-4701
年,卷(期):2024.50(2)
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