首页|基于SWAT模型饶河流域土地利用变化对径流的影响

基于SWAT模型饶河流域土地利用变化对径流的影响

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为了研究饶河流域土地利用的变化对径流的影响,构建饶河流域的SWAT模型,通过输入2000、2005、2010、2015和2020年的土地利用图和极端土地利用图对径流结果进行分析.结果表明:2000-2020年间,占比面积大的耕地、林地和草地的面积都处于下降趋势,相反城镇用地面积的扩张最为明显;模型经率定与验证,渡峰坑和虎山水文站率定期及验证期结果R2和ENS均不小于0.85,相对误差|Re|均小于20%,表明该模型可用于饶河流域;比较流域总出口断面的年均径流量,表现出先下降再缓慢上升的趋势,这与耕地、草地和林地的面积转移到城镇用地有关,且土地利用的改变体现在汛期的影响比非汛期更明显.通过设置极端土地利用情景,表明耕地面积的增加对径流量是正反馈,会导致径流量的增加,而林地和草地面积的增加对径流量则是负反馈,会降低径流量.
Effects of land use change on runoff in Raohe river basin based on SWAT model
In order to study the impact of land use change on runoff in Raohe river basin,the SWAT model of Raohe river basin was constructed,and the runoff results were analyzed by inputting the land use maps and extreme land use maps of 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the areas of arable land,forest land and pasture,which occupied a large proportion of the total area,were all in a declining trend,while the expansion of the urban land area was the most obvious.After calibrating and verifying the model,the results of R2 and ENS of Dufengkeng and Hushan hydrology stations during the calibration and verification period are not less than 0.85,and the relative errors|Re|are less than 20%,indicating that the model can be used in Raohe river basin.Compared with the land use maps of the five periods,the runoff of the total outlet section of the basin showed a downward and then slowly upward trend which was related to the transfer of the area of cultivated land,grassland and forest land to urban land,and the impact of land use change was more obvious in flood season than in non-flood season.By setting extreme land use scenarios,it showed that the increase of cultivated land area had a positive feedback on the runoff,and the increase of cultivated land area would lead to the increase of the runoff,while the increase of forest and pasture area had a negative feedback on the runoff and would reduce the runoff.

Land useSWAT modelRaohe river basinRunoff

毛安琪、胡闽、杨承志、叶帅、李静

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南昌市城市防洪事务中心,江西南昌,330009

江西省鄱阳湖水利枢纽建设办公室,江西南昌,330009

江西省防汛信息中心,江西南昌,330009

土地利用 SWAT模型 饶河流域 径流

江西水利科技项目

202324YBKT20

2024

江西水利科技
江西省水利科学研究院 江西省水利厅科技情报站 江西省水利学会

江西水利科技

影响因子:0.292
ISSN:1004-4701
年,卷(期):2024.50(3)
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