A study on key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases in tobacco-growing area of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture
[Objective]This study was conducted to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate changes in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture from 2010 to 2021 and construct the prediction models for tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases.[Method]The Mann-Kendall(MK)trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,and stepwise multiple regression were used to analyze meteorological data and then build the models.[Result]During the entire tobacco growing period,there was a significant decrease in the number of hours of sunshine in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture.In Lüxi tobacco-growing area,there was a significant increase in the average temperature during the vigorous growth and late maturity stages of tobacco.In Jianshui tobacco-growing area,the number of hours of sunshine during the vigorous growth,pre-maturity,and late maturity stages of tobacco all showed significant decreases.The R2 values for constructing disease warning models by using meteorological factors significantly correlated with black shank and wildfire diseases were 0.9984 and 0.9752,respectively.[Conclusion]Establish early warning models for black shank disease and wildfire disease,the R2 value is high and the fit is good.
tobacco diseasesmeteorological indexearly warning modelHonghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
