[目的]甜瓜迷实蝇[Myiopardalis pardalina(Bigot)]是世界性检疫害虫，主要危害葫芦科(Cucurbitaceae)植物，严重影响瓜类产量，目前已被EPPO组织(European and mediterranean plant protection organization，EPPO)、中国列为进境检疫有害生物。为明确甜瓜迷实蝇在中国的适生区，分析其在中国入侵定殖的风险。[方法]基于R软件的Biomod2 组合模型对该害虫在中国的适生区进行分析，并采用"多指标综合评估方法"评价甜瓜迷实蝇入侵的风险。[结果]甜瓜迷实蝇适生区在中国主要集中分布在西北地区的新疆北部、西北部、中部、东部、西南部、南部，甘肃西北部、中部，青海西部，宁夏北部、中部、中西部，内蒙古西部、西南部、中部、中西部等。风险性等级评估结果显示甜瓜迷实蝇在中国风险性总值R为2。55，属特别危险的有害生物，一旦该害虫在中国定殖、暴发，将严重威胁中国瓜类生产。[结论]应加强检验检疫措施和监测手段，避免甜瓜迷实蝇传入而造成的经济损失。
Risk analysis and potential distribution prediction of Myiopardalis pardalina in China
[Objective]Myiopardalis pardalina is a worldwide borer pest of Cucurbitaceae,which seriously affects the yield and quality of melons.It has been listed as an imported quarantine pest in European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization(EPPO)and China.This study was conducted to investigate the potential distribution and the invasion risk of M.pardalina in China.[Method]The Biomod2 ensemble model based on R software was used to analyze the habitat of M.pardalina in China,and the invasion risk was analyzed by"multi-objective synthetic evaluation method".[Result]The results showed that M.pardalina could establish and develop populations in most regions of China.The risk analysis showed that the risk value(R)of M.pardalina was 2.55,showing M.pardalina is a particularly dangerous pest.Once the pest colonized and outbroken in China,a serious threat to the production of melons in China would occur.mainly concentrated distribution of M.pardalina habitat in China was in the northwestern regions of northwestern,central,eastern,southwestern,and southern Xinjiang,northwestern and central Gansu,western Qinghai,northern,central,and central and western of Ningxia,as well as north,western,southwestern,central,and central and western regions of China's Inner Mongolia.[Conclusion]The inspection and quarantine measures and monitoring methods should be strengthened to avoid the economic losses caused by M.pardalina.
万方数据
维普
