Forecasting the Supply and Demand of Teachers for Basic Education Oriented to High-Quality Development
Against the backdrop of a declining school-age population in basic education,the class size and the class-to-teacher ratio have become key indicators for the high-quality development of education.This study,based on total class hours,teachers'workloads and other factors,estimates high-standard,realistic,and year-by-year up-to-standard class sizes across different educational stages between 2024 and 2035.The high-standard scenario,which uses the average class size of OECD countries as a benchmark,indicates a significant funding gap in the forecasted demand for teachers,making financial support unsustainable.The realistic scenario uses the methods of proportional shrinkage and exponential smoothing to estimate and plan the orderly shrinkage of class sizes based on the changes in school-age population,and under the realistic scenario the demand for teachers in each educational stage of basic education between 2024 and 2035 will not decrease but increase;the demand for lower secondary school teachers will rise slightly amid fluctuations,while the demand for teachers in other educational stages will grow steadily;there will be structural and periodic fluctuations in education funds,but the overall funding remains sustainable.In terms of the supply of teachers,the proportions of the supply of teachers from different channels will change structurally:there will be a decline in the supply of teachers from open channels and undergraduates from teacher-training programs,but a continuous increase in the supply of postgraduates from teacher-training programs.To meet the demands for the high-quality development of education,we need to formulate an orderly plan for the shrinkage of class sizes across different educational stages or periods in basic education;structurally adjust pre-service teacher education based on the overall stable demand for teachers;raise the standard for the admission of teachers from open channels;and establish a mechanism for the coherent allocation of teachers and funds in each educational stage of basic education.
basic educationhigh-quality developmentthe demand for teachersthe guarantee of fundsteacher supply