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稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化路径探析

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2009年以来,人民币国际化经历涨潮—回落—再涨潮周期性过程,并遵循从旧"三位一体"到新"三位一体",再到新新"三位一体"的演进逻辑,结合国内外经济形势和潜在问题进行调整,取得了积极进展.相对于美元、欧元等国际货币,人民币国际化整体水平仍存在明显差距.在疫情影响、地缘冲突、美元加息等多重冲击的全球新变局下,经济下行与汇率贬值压力、系统性金融风险在一些领域抬头、协同深化改革内生难题待解,以及全球经济金融格局分化冲击、数字货币对货币主权的威胁等,是影响人民币国际化发展的关键因素.要以稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化为发展方向,实施更大力度的财政货币政策,确保我国经济回归潜在增速,有效防范化解系统性金融风险,进一步全面深化改革以破除体制机制障碍,扩大高水平开放以改善外部环境,积极探索双循环格局下人民币国际化发展路径.
Exploring the Path to Steadily and Solidly Advance RMB Internationalization
Since 2009,the internationalization of RMB has experienced a cyclical process of rising tide-falling back-rising tide again,following the evolution logic from the old"trinity"to the new"trinity",and then to the novel"trinity".Adjustments have been made in line with domestic and international economic situations and potential challenges,leading to positive progress.However,compared with international currencies such as the US dollar and the euro,there is still a significant gap in the overall level of RMB internationalization.Under the new global situation of multiple shocks such as the impact of the epidemic,geopolitical conflicts,and the US dollar interest rate hike,key factors influencing the development of RMB internationalization encompass economic downturn,pressure from exchange rate depreciation,the imperative to prevent and mitigate systemic financial risks,inherent challenges in coordinating and deepening reforms,as well as responding to the evolving landscape of global economic and financial dynamics,and the heightened competition in sovereign currency driven by digital currencies.It is imperative to prioritize the steady and solid promotion of RMB internationalization as our developmental focus,implementing more robust fiscal and monetary policies to ensure that China's economy returns to its potential growth rate,and effectively prevents and defuses systemic financial risks.Furthermore,there is a need to further comprehensively deepen reforms to overcome institutional barriers,expand high-level openness to enhance the external environment,and actively explore pathways related to the internationalization of the RMB.

RMB InternationalizationTrinityInternational Monetary SystemSteady and Solid

张明、王喆

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中国社会科学院金融研究所

中央民族大学经济学院,北京 100081

人民币国际化 三位一体 国际货币体系 稳慎扎实

2024

开放导报
综合开发研究院(中国·深圳)

开放导报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.615
ISSN:1004-6623
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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