Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Development Forecast of Modernization Process in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
The modernization development process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a process of comprehen-sive quality improvement of regional development factors with Chinese characteristics.This paper constructed an eval-uation index system for the modernization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from four dimensions:economy,society,people's livelihood,and ecological environment;it calculates and analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2021 by applying entropy weight TOPSIS method and kernel density estimation models,and spatial Markov chain is applied to study the spatial pattern of mod-ernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;it also forecasts the influence of modernization development degree.The research shows that modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has experienced three stages:adjustment period,gradual improvement period and steady progress period,and the phased development fea-tures are significant.Modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has universality and convergence,as well as particularity and difference.In the modernization process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,spatial prox-imity effect and stratified group effect are obvious;its regional modernization is affected by neighboring regions,and the probability of upward transformation will increase for cities adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin.The implementation of dual-carbon goal and high-quality development will make Chinese-style modernization development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region more rational,stable,and balanced in the future.Policy is an important driving force to lead,promote and improve the modernization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and hotspot effect of major events is the catalyst to accelerate the modernization process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
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