首页|人口老龄化对我国制造业数字化转型的影响

人口老龄化对我国制造业数字化转型的影响

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基于我国省际面板数据,从数字技术革新、数字能力革新以及数字效益革新3个维度构建指标体系,并采用熵值法对制造业数字化转型水平进行测度,应用面板回归模型和中介效应模型实证检验人口老龄化对制造业数字化转型的影响机制及区域异质性.研究发现,我国制造业数字化转型水平逐年提高,且东部地区最高,中部、东北和西部地区依次降低.人口老龄化总体上会对制造业数字化转型产生积极影响,并且中西部及东北地区作用较强,而东部地区作用较弱.人口老龄化对数字能力革新与数字效益革新具有显著的积极影响,而对数字技术革新的促进作用并不显著.人口老龄化会通过减少劳动力供给、倒逼技术创新水平提升和增加居民储蓄来促进制造业数字化转型,但通过人力资本积累促进制造业数字化转型的中介效应并不显著.据此,提出了加强技术创新能力、完善劳动力市场体制和加快养老保障制度建设等建议.
Study on the Impact of Population Aging on Digital Transformation of Manufacturing Industry in China
Based on China's provincial panel data,this paper constructs an index system from three dimensions of digital technology innovation,digital capability innovation and digital benefit innovation,measures the level of dig-ital transformation of manufacturing industry using entropy method,and empirically tests the impact mechanism and regional heterogeneity of population aging on digital transformation of manufacturing industry with panel regression model and intermediary effect model.The study found that the level of digital transformation of China's manufacturing industry has increased year by year,and the level of eastern region is the highest,and the central,northeastern,and western regions are lower in sequence.Population aging has a positive impact on the digital transformation of manufac-turing industry on the whole;the central,western and northeastern regions play a strong role,while the eastern region a weak role.Population aging has a significant positive impact on digital capability innovation and digital benefit inno-vation,but has no significant promoting effect on digital technology innovation.Population aging promotes the digital transformation of manufacturing industry by reducing labor supply,forcing the improvement of technology innovation,and increasing household savings,but the intermediary effect of promoting the digital transformation of manufacturing industry through human capital accumulation is not significant.Accordingly,this paper puts forward some sugges-tions,such as strengthening the ability of technology innovation,perfecting the labor market system,and accelerating the construction of the pension security system.

population agingmanufacturing industrydigital transformationregional difference

王琴梅、王廷赫

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陕西师范大学 国际商学院,西安 710119

人口老龄化 制造业 数字化转型 区域差异

陕西省社会科学基金

2022D035

2024

开发研究
甘肃省社会科学院

开发研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.826
ISSN:1003-4161
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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