Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Fertility Level and Female Labor Participation Rate
Changes in fertility levels will affect the future supply of working-age population,but the research conclusion of the correlation between fertility levels and female labor participation rates is still controversial.Based on the time series data of fertility levels and female labor participation rates in China from 1970 to 2021,this paper estab-lishes a vector autoregression(VAR)model to test the dynamic correlation between fertility levels and female labor participation rates by stationarity test,cointegration test and Granger causality test to reveal the dynamic correlation between changes in fertility levels and female labor force participation rates from a macro perspective.The results show that the correlation between total fertility rate and female labor participation rates in China has changed from a negative correlation between 1979 and 1990 to a positive correlation between 1991 and 2021;there is a long-term stable equi-librium relationship between total fertility rate and female labor participation rates,and the total fertility rate and fe-male labor participation rate have shown a certain Granger causality relationship.Also,there is a significant interac-tive response relationship between the total fertility rate and female labor participation rate from 1991 to 2021,and the impact of changes in female labor participation rate on changes in the total fertility rate shows a lag,while the degree of the impact is less than that of total fertility rate on female labor participation rate.Therefore,in the context of fertil-ity policy adjustment,China should pay full attention to the interactive effects and impact response relationship be-tween fertility levels and female labor participation rates,effectively protect women's fertility and labor rights,pro-mote the development of a gender-equal fertility support system,and stabilize female labor participation rates while boosting the social fertility levels.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
