首页|基于PCA-BP神经网络的跨境农产品供应链数字化转型风险预测

基于PCA-BP神经网络的跨境农产品供应链数字化转型风险预测

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数字经济正在成为重组全球农业要素资源、重塑全球农业经济结构、改变全球农业竞争格局的关键力量.对于跨境农产品供应链(Cross-border Agri-food Supply Chains,CASCs),由于农产品自身具有易损易耗、季节性和周期性等特点,使得跨境农产品的链式结构相比其他供应链存在更大的脆弱性.推动跨境农产品供应链数字化转型,关键是有效识别和预测数字化转型过程中的风险因素.基于TOE框架归纳了企业数字化转型风险中的 3 个表现层面,在对跨境农产品供应链核心企业及其成员企业调研基础上,运用主成分分析(PCA)减少原始数据的维度,在此基础上构建反向传播神经网络(BPNN)用于预测CASCs数字化转型中的风险.结果表明,所选择的 4 个主成分是合理的,评价指标体系是有价值的.研究结果为跨境农产品供应链发展提供了新的思路.
Risk Prediction of Digital Transformation of Cross-border Agricultural Foods Supply Chain Based on PCA-BP Neural Network
The digital economy is emerging as a crucial force restructuring global agricultural resources,reshaping the global agricultural economic landscape,and altering the global agricultural competitive dynamics.For Cross-border Agri-food Supply Chains(CASCs),the chain structure of cross-bor-der agricultural products is more vulnerable compared to other supply chains due to the inherent char-acteristics of agricultural products,including perishability,seasonality,and cyclicality.To propel the digital transformation of cross-border agricultural products,it is essential to effectively identify and predict the risk factors during the digitalization process.Based on the TOE framework,this paper cate-gorizes three dimensions of risk manifestations in enterprise digital transformation.Drawing on surveys of core enterprises and members of cross-border agri-food supply chains,Principal Component A-nalysis(PCA)is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the raw data.Subsequently,a Backpropaga-tion Neural Network(BPNN)is constructed to predict the risks in the digitalization of CASCs.The re-sults indicate that the chosen four principal components are reasonable,and the evaluation indicator system is valuable.The study provides new insights for cross-border agricultural supply chains.

Cross-border Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Supply ChainDigital TransformationPrincipal Component Analysis(PCA)Backpropagation Neural Network(BPNN)

何林婧、陈晓琳、朱林森、严晓

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北部湾大学 北部湾海洋发展研究中心

北部湾大学 经济管理学院,广西 钦州 535011

跨境农产品 农产品供应链 数字化转型 主成分分析(PCA) 反向传播神经网络(BPNN)

北部湾大学北部湾海洋发展研究中心研究生科研创新课题广西壮族自治区研究生教育创新计划

BHZXSKY2207YCSW2023519

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1672-2272.202312064

科技创业月刊
湖北省科技信息研究院

科技创业月刊

影响因子：0.254
ISSN：1672-2272
年,卷(期)：2024.37(5)
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