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中国建筑业碳排放强度的空间特征与影响因素分析

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对中国30个省份建筑业碳排放强度进行测算的基础上,利用地理统计方法分析中国建筑业碳排放强度的空间特征,进一步建立随机森林模型动态量化识别碳排放强度的关键影响因素并分析其影响规律.结果显示:2010-2019年中国建筑业碳排放强度整体空间格局显著空间自相关,呈现波动上升趋势;中国30个省份建筑业碳排放强度在局部空间格局上存在较为显著的南北分异;热点区呈自西南向华北转移态势,冷点区则呈华东向华南转移态势;建筑业发展过程中,建筑业材料消耗水平、城市化率、人口流动、能源消耗水平对建筑业碳排放强度影响显著.提出应从不同区域的碳排放空间特性、能源利用、人口集聚等多角度制定差异化碳减排政策.
Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity of construction industry in China
The carbon emissions in the construction industry in China have become one of the main sources of carbon emissions in the entire society.Analyzing the spatial characteristics of carbon emissions intensity in the construction industry and identifying its key influencing factors are the key to achieving sustainable urban development and achieving the dual carbon goals.Based on the calculation of the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry in 30 provinces of China from 2010 to 2019,this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry in China using geostatistical methods,and further establishes Random Forest model to dynamically quantify and identify the key influencing factors of carbon emission intensity and analyze their impact laws.The results show that:1)From 2010 to 2019,the overall spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity in China's construction industry showed significant spatial autocorrelation with a fluctuating upward trend.2)The carbon emission intensity of the construction industry in 30 provinces of China exhibits significant north-south differentiation in local spatial patterns,with hot spots shifting from West China to North China,and cold spots shifting and expanding from East China to South China.3)In the development process of the construction industry,the level of material consumption,urbanization rate,population mobility,and energy consumption have a significant impact on the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry.Subsequently,differentiated carbon emission reduction policies should be formulated from multiple perspectives such as the spatial characteristics of carbon emissions,energy utilization,and population agglomeration in different regions.

construction industrycarbon emission intensitycarbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

徐水太、李晞薇、董信

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江西理工大学经济管理学院,赣州 341000

江西理工大学电气工程与自动化学院,赣州 341000

建筑业 碳排放强度 双碳目标

江西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目

JD23043

2024

科技导报
中国科学技术协会

科技导报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.559
ISSN:1000-7857
年,卷(期):2024.42(6)
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