The Prediction and Countermeasures of the Scale of Primary Education in Chongqing
Using methods including ARIMA,exponential smoothing and Back-Propagation Neural Network to predict the population of primary school students,the population of primary school female students,the ratio of teachers and students,the number of schools and the birth rate.The coefficients of determination of the predicted results range between 0.785 and 0.994,inclusive.The stationary coefficients of determination of the five indexes range between 0.506 and 0.629,inclusive,using the method ARIMA.The ratios of urbanization have significantly negative correlation with the numbers of primary schools,and the correlation coefficient is-0.689.The prediction illustrates that the trend of the population of primary school students,the population of primary school female students,the number of schools and the birth rate show downward trajectories,and the trend of the ratio of teachers and students shows an upward trajectory.So,the educational countermeasures were proposed including promoting small-sized classes,constructing new advanced primary education empirical schools,and paying more attention in those primary schools in developing areas.
scale of primary educationexponential smoothingARIMABack-Propagation neural network
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
