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新时代普通高等教育办学规模的时间序列分析和预测

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新时代,我国普通高等教育办学规模得到快速发展。文章选取普通高等教育学校数、在校生数、专任教师数、校舍建筑面积、教学科研仪器设备总值这五项时间序列数据进行增长率分析,反映新时代以来,我国普通高等教育办学规模发展取得的新突破。为更好地了解"十四五"时期最后两年普通高等教育办学规模发展情况,文章利用最小二乘法确定时间趋势方程,进行线性趋势预测并评价预测结果,最后给出"十四五"时期最后两年的预测值。
Time Series Analysis and Prediction of the Scale of General Higher Education in the New Era
Since the new era,the scale of general higher education in our country has developed rapidly.This paper selects five time series data of the number of general higher education schools,the number of students,the number of full-time teachers,the construction area of school buildings,the total value of teaching and scientific research equipment to analyze the growth rate,reflecting the new breakthrough in the development of the scale of general higher education in China since the new era.In order to better understand the development of the scale of general higher education in the last two years of the"14th Five-Year Plan"period,the least square method is used to determine the time trend equation,make linear trend prediction and evaluate the prediction results,and finally give the predicted value of the last two years of the"14th Five-Year Plan"period.

general higher educationscalegrowthpredict

何伟强

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江西工业职业技术学院 江西 南昌 330072

普通高等教育 办学规模 增长 预测

2024

科教导刊
湖北省科学技术协会

科教导刊

影响因子:0.225
ISSN:1674-6813
年,卷(期):2024.(28)