Risk Assessment on Research and Development Project Based on Noisy-or Gate and Bayesian Network
In the case of lack of sample data,this paper proposed a new risk assessment model of research and development (R&D) projects based on Noisy-or gate and Bayesian network for effective risk management.The model can obtain effective network parameters using historical data and expert knowledge when the Bayesian network nodes can meet the requirements of Noisy-or gate.And then we can infer the occurrence probability of each risk factor and get the integrated risk impact values combined with risk weight.So we can get the high risk factors through comparison and then provide the basis for risk control.The result contrast with AHP shows that the model can effectively assess the risk of R&D projects,thereby increasing risk management efficiency.
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